On page 23 of the “Forecasting the 1992 Election” article are the results of four regression models.  The first three have the same dependent variable, but have differing model specifications.

1.  Explain the differences between the first three regressions.  What is the dependent variable?  What are the explanatory variables?

2.  Interpret the regression coefficients of each model.

3.  Can you conduct appropriate t-tests on the coefficients of each model (exclude the constant)?  Why or why not?

4.  Evaluate the three regressions model’s goodness of fit.

5.  Using the first three regressions, conduct an appropriate F-test to test whether:

     a..  the party seeking a third term variable is significant.
     b.   the seat change in midterm election and incumbent received at least 60% of the primary vote variables are both significant.

    Note:  List both the restricted and unrestricted models and the respective hypotheses that you’re using for a and b.